Bonds: Hang Just Below Support
Stocks: Size Continues to Matter
Commodities: Anything But Precious Metals
Currencies: The Dollar Descent Slows
Bonds
US Treasury 10yr. Yield
US Treasury Yields have broken out, and the 14-period RSI finally registered overbought conditions.
10yr. T-Note
The 10yr. T-Note formed a hammer candlestick, suggesting a quick reversal last Tuesday. A close above 137^065 would do some damage to the topping pattern, and add uncertainty to the bearish case.
30yr. T-Bond
Like the T-Note, the 30yr. T-Bond consolidates just below the breakout level.
Stocks
Global Dow - GDOW
The GDOW put in a doji or spinning top candlestick just below last week's closing price. This indicates uncertainty and a needed pause in price action. Many of the Large-cap indexes, both domestic and international, portrayed similar price action.
Value Line Geometric Index - VLG
I like to monitor the VLG Index since it measures the median North American stock value. It continues to portray overall market health with another all-time weekly closing high.
SPY - MDY - SLY
Size continues to matter when it comes to US Stocks. When we move down the chart from Large-caps to Small-caps, the angle of recent price action steepens.
S&P 400 - MID
Mid-caps putting in another all-time weekly closing high.
Russell 2000 ETF - IWM
The Russell 2000 putting in another all-time weekly closing high.
Russell Micro-cap Index - IWC
As we continue to move down the cap-scale, price action just gets stronger. Micro-caps flex their way to ATHs.
S&P Retail ETF - XRT
The move off the March lows in XRT, the S&P Retail ETF, amaze me. It's even more amazing that this ETF's holdings do not include Amazon.
Goldman Sachs - GS
I like to take note of charts that both peaked in 2018 along with most global risk assets, and have also closed above their 2018 highs. Goldman Sachs fits the bill, and the fact that it's one of the largest investment banks in the world makes it even better.
Russell 1000 Value ETF - IWD
One last piece of evidence supporting a continuation of strength in equity markets, is the fact that Value is catching up to Growth. Value is back above early 2020 highs, while Growth continues to grind higher.
This is an environment that depicts a rising tide that is beginning to lift all boats.
Commodities
CCI Index
The equally weighted CCI Index continues to grind higher. We remain in a market environment that favors buying stocks and commodities over bonds.
Crude Oil
I think the next major test for Crude Oil is around the 64.00 level.
Steel ETF - SLX
The Steel ETF approaches a significant area of resistance, and it does so with momentum on its side. It will be interesting to see how it reacts at these levels over the next few weeks.
Silver/Gold Ratio
I posted a piece on Gold and Silver last Friday, covering resistance levels of note. Until price action breaks above those levels I'm not at all interested in trading those markets.
However, we can keep an eye on a couple ratio charts for clues on the direction of precious metals.
The Silver/Gold ratio consolidates above support. When this ratio breaks out to the upside, precious metals should gain strength and direction. If the ratio breaks down, then more weakness lies ahead.
Platinum/Gold Ratio
If precious metals catch a bid, then I have to think that the Platinum/Gold ratio challenges the 1982 lows. Yes, the 1982 lows. I recently wrote a piece on Platinum and its potential to outperform. This is another ratio that deserves our attention.
EW Custom Grain Index
Grains continue to rip! I went over the Fibonacci expansion levels for each individual market in an earlier post. You can check it out here.
Sugar #11
After a less than stellar breakout the first week of the year, NY Sugar recently followed through with a strong candle.
Sugar #5
I mentioned last week that I prefer the London Sugar #5 contract, and I still do. It just looks stronger.
OJ
Orange Juice continues to develop a possible H&S Bottom. The right shoulder is also taking the shape of H&S Bottom. This lends credence to the bottoming pattern and its reversal interpretation. It also highlights the fractal nature of price action. A solid close above 129.00 would confirm the breakout.
Currencies
Dollar Index - DXY
The Dollar Index is forming a pattern very similar to the beginning of the consolidation in August last year. A break and close above the 92.00 level could make things very interesting.
WisdomTree Emerging Currency Fund - CEW
The WisdomTree Emerging Currency Fund is forming a flag or pennant that carries bullish implications. I will keep my eye on this chart for clues of USD strength or weakness.
USD/INR
The Indian Rupee is another chart that will keep my attention. If broad USD weakness continues, I imagine the USD/INR will be below 72.750 level.
USD/BRL
The USD/BRL cross is forming a Symmetrical Triangle. Unfortunately Symmetrical Triangles do not imply direction, but I'm leaning towards a reversal.
USD/RUB
A possible Double Top is forming in the USD/RUB cross.
AUD/RUB
I got the idea to add the AUD/RUB cross for perspective from @granthawkridge. I just want to point out how different the AUD and USD look against the RUB. It's all information, and it supports a risk-on environment.
NZD/USD
I'm still watching the NZD$ for a possible trade. It's roughly halfway to its H&S target, and prime for a continuation pattern.
AUD/NZD
The AUD/NZD continues to bottom in the form of 6yr. Coil. Notice how many times the upper boundary of the coil is tested versus the lower boundary. The way I learned it, the more times a level is tested the, the more likely it is to break.
The daily chart doesn't provide any classical chart patterns, but the 1.0850 level might offer an opportunity to get long.
Crypto
Bitcoin
I just wanted to zoom out on the weekly chart and have a look at Bitcoin's progress from the breakout late last year. A sideways consolidation for 4 - 6 weeks would be reasonable.
On the daily chart, price is still holding above the 423.6% Fibonacci expansion level, and that is where most of my attention will be in the coming weeks.
Ethereum
Ethereum made a run towards its former highs but fell short. Support should continue to come in around 881.00 and the 61.8% retracement level.
Litecoin
It will be interesting to see if Litecoin can hold above the 2019 highs, around 142.
RIOT
Riot Blockchain closed last week back below the 685.4% Fib expansion level. If it begins to retrace, then I expect the 17.75 level to act as support.
That's it for now.
Have a great week everyone!
Thanks for reading! If you have any questions or comments, please feel free to contact me at ianculley@culleycharts.com
DISCLAIMER: All information and opinions expressed by Culley Charts are strictly that, and should not be construed as investment advice. Market participation comes with inherent risk, and the responsibility of managing this risk lies solely with each individual investor.
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